Preparing for tomorrow: the Futures Wheel.

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Developed in 1971 by Jerome C. Glenn, it is a graphical visualisation of direct and indirect future consequences of a specific event.
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The tool provides a structured way to explore the potential implications of a particular development, trend, innovation, change, or decision.
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It consists of a central event surrounded by direct consequences; with those being surrounded again by the event's indirect consequences (see pic).
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As a foresight method, it provides a model of the future grounded in the ramifications of an event.
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It can also also be used in decision making (to choose between options) and in change management (to identify the outcomes of change).
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Furthermore, the tool is especially useful during the brainstorming stage of impact or risk analysis.
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How do you use the Futures Wheel?
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The first task is to identify what's changing.
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Next, brainstorm each possible direct effects (positives and negatives) of that change in a circle, and connect it from the central circle with an arrow - these are known as first-order consequences.
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Then, repeat this by identifying the second-order consequences, third-order consequences, fourth-order consequences, and so on (tip: colour-code each level).
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Once you're finished, you'll have a visual map that lays out all of the implications, enabling appropriate management of the change.
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The interconnecting lines makes it possible to visualise interrelationships between the causes and resulting changes.
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Thus, Futures Wheels can assist in developing multi-concepts about possible future development by offering a futures-conscious perspective and aiding in group brainstorming.
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Some examples of opening questions we use with clients:
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➡ What’s a significant challenge your company’s currently facing?
➡ What’s a trend that you’re curious about, and wondering how it might impact your business?
➡ What’s something that you really have no idea about and are curious if it could potentially impact your business?
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Ultimately, the methodology of the Futures Wheel provides a structured approach to exploring a broad spectrum of consequences and their relationships in a given situation.
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In addition, it offers a visual representation that aids in understanding and communicating complex future scenarios.
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By encouraging holistic thinking, systemic analysis, and proactive decision-making, this tool helps organisations anticipate and prepare for changes.
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It also aids identification of potential risks and opportunities, as well as fostering a culture of future-oriented thinking.
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In a today’s dynamic world where change is constant and uncertainty looms, navigating the future can be daunting.
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The Futures Wheel is a valuable tool for understanding the multi-faceted nature of change and anticipating the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

You will probably get this wrong; it's almost guaranteed.

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​Question: what is the most popular way to buy music?
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You likely answered "streaming", which would be incorrect.
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You don't buy the music when you stream; it's not owned - you merely rent access.
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The accurate answer is actually vinyl records.
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Vinyl is an analogue sound storage medium, first designed in the final quarter of the 19th century, in the form of a flat disc with an inscribed, modulated spiral groove.
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The groove usually starts near the outside edge and ends near the center of the disc.
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In 2023, according to the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), 43 million records were sold in the US versus 37 million CDs - the second year this was true.
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In our contemporary connected world of everything-as-a-service, vinyl sales are trending up.
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What this means, in effect, is that a growing number of people are willing to pay more for a less convenient way to listen to music - but why?
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The catalyst was, in a word, COVID.
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Revenues from physical music formats continue to grow after their remarkable resurgence when people were stuck indoors.
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Many had a surplus of cash plus a requirement for stimulation and entertainment they could undertake safely within their own homes.
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In 2020, phonograph record revenues surpassed those of CDs for the first time since the 1980s.
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In 2021 Taylor Swift sold 102,000 copies of her ninth studio album "Evermore" on vinyl in one week; the sales beat the largest sales in one week on vinyl since Nielsen started tracking vinyl sales in 1991.
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In revenue terms, streaming dwarfs its physical predecessor, pulling in $14.4 billion in 2023 (84% of music industry revenue).
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2023 vinyl sales earned $1.4 billion (71% of overall physical sales).
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Customers paying for downloads of songs, meanwhile, accounted less than a third of vinyl at $434 million.
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Vinyl, being physical, means emissions are required to produce it.
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Most are made from PVC, a type of plastic which takes centuries to decompose.
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In a nod to sustainability, earlier this year the new album from Billie Eilish was released on pressed eco-vinyl with packaging made from recycled materials.
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Streaming is still thought to be the best option if you only listen to a track a few times.
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For repeat listens though, physical copies of albums are likely to be a more sustainable long-term alternative.
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In the same way that we'll still pay a premium for mechanical watches over a much more feature-packed digital smartwatch, perhaps vinyl records are here to stay long-term.
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New, innovative and digital isn't always preferable; we're still subjective animals, and that won't change in the future.
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Are you on the same frequency as us, or do we need to change our tune? Let us know.

Low risk: the model could help in the creation of biological weapons.

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Pardon?
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Earlier this month, OpenAI released a scorecard on how its GPT-4o Artificial Intelligence (AI) model was tested & how it fared during "red teaming".
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This is the process of internal and external experts deliberately testing to work out risks and how they can be mitigated.
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The concept comes from military training.
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Realistic wargames are conducted to practice being attacked to flush out vulnerabilities, the attacking team being the red team.
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OpenAI rates potential dangers in tiers: Low, Medium, High, and Critical (see pic).
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The company states here that it will not release any model that it rates has a High or Critical risk.
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Just search for "GPT-4o System Card".
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The firm states that they "...worked with more than 100 external red teamers, speaking a total of 45 different languages, and representing geographic backgrounds of 29 different countries".
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It's great they comprehensively tested it, and demonstrated some transparency.
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Nevertheless, this is the student marking their own homework.
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Very different to the Chinese approach where any AI service accessible by the public has to be vetted by a regulator before being made available.
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According to OpenAI's framework, evaluations currently cover four risk categories: Cybersecurity, CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear), Persuasion, and Model Autonomy.
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Researchers found GPT-4o, released in May, to be of "Medium" risk, with the highest risk category being persuasion (the model’s writing samples showed the potential to sway readers' opinions).
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The GPT-4o report scored several potential dangers as "Low" risk.
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As you can see, these include whether the model could help in the creation of biological weapons or be used to supercharge cyber attacks.
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In July, the company announced a bioscience research partnership with the Los Alamos National Laboratory​ (LANL).
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LANL was established in 1943 to conduct scientific research for the Manhattan Project, which developed the world’s first atomic weapons.
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Its website currently states: "LANL's priority roles are serving as a nuclear weapons design agency and a nuclear weapons production agency; addressing nuclear threats; and performing national security science, technology, and engineering".
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The two will work together to study how AI can be used safely by scientists in laboratory settings to advance bioscientific research.
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Without donning a tinfoil hat, perhaps it might be prudent to be collectively concerned for the future here.
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Self-assessment isn't sufficient: an empowered independent AI review body is needed, and quickly.
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Obviously, this would take time and cause delay to market release, which firms with a "move fast and break things" mentality are allergic to.
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In the race for AI dominance (read: cash), there seems to be insufficient rigour, understanding, or care being taken; do you agree?

Poor infrastructure in remote areas means inconsistent and expensive high-speed data connectivity; a common barrier to digital inclusivity.

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Instead of under the ground (fibre), or through the air (cellular), what if we could beam it down from high in the sky?
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This is what Sceye​ aims to do with their solar-powered hovering airship.
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The pictured HAPS (High-Altitude Platform Station) is a 65m-long, uncrewed, helium-filled aircraft.
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Designed to launch and land vertically, it proceeds to a high altitude of 60,000 to 65,000 ft (18,288 to 19,812 m) - twice as high as commercial airliners.
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It hovers at a given set of GPS coordinates; its electric motors powered by solar cells which are integrated into its full-body silver-foil "solar cape".
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Flying since 2021, it has now made over twenty successful test flights - with an intended commercial in-service target of 2025.
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It could conceivably stay on-station in a given spot for months at a time - relaying broadband access to those that need it.
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Utilising an onboard 4G active antenna array and beam-forming technology to maintain an LTE OpenRAN data connection with a smartphone on the ground, it can span a record-breaking distance of over 140km.
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LTE typically has a range of about 100km.
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In countries with small and widely dispersed populations, providing telecommunications infrastructure is expensive for providers; they pass on the cost to consumers.
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In 2019 Botswana (population 2.4 million), introduced "SmartBots" - free WiFi routers in public spaces.
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SmartBots routers, placed in common facilities such as clinics and schools, have speeds of up to 10Mbps.
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Over 1,100 public areas have been fitted with SmartBots routers, with plans to connect more than 500 villages.
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On average, more than 130,000 users access internet resources via SmartBots daily.
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In the intervening five years, Internet penetration has increased from 42% in 2019 to 77% in 2024.
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The lack of password protection does raise concerns about user vulnerability to cyberattacks, however.
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Paid connectivity in many remote locales around the world is getting better and cheaper though.
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Data from a recent study by Cable.co.uk​ on broadband pricing in 223 countries reveals vast global disparities in the cost of getting online.
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The country with the cheapest average broadband monthly cost is Sudan (USD $2.40).
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The most expensive is the Solomon Islands (USD $457.84).
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The 2024 average global price is USD $55.89, a -1.84% difference from previous year.
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If projects similar to HAPS really take off (pun-intended), hopefully these prices will continue to fall.
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Then, in the future, more people globally can access digital resources to learn, work, and play.

"WHAT DO WE WANT?" => "More cats!"; "WHEN DO WE WANT THEM?" => "Meow"

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For all the practical positives that our contemporary connected lives bring, let's face it: Interweb eyeballs love our furry feline friends.
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The New York Times described cat images as "that essential building block of the Internet".
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You may be familiar with the popular cynical or unhappy meme of "Grumpy Cat", borne from pictures of a real puss, and virally used ever since.
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However, have you yet encountered "Chubby"?
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Chubby is ginger, heavy, and generated by Artificial Intelligence (AI).
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Purr-fect pop culture.
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Videos on the likes of TikTok and YouTube of AI-generated Chubby - not always the same, of course - are earning millions of views, with devoted followers.
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You might think this makes no sense, but that's hardly a novel thing.
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A previous scientific survey found that the participants were happier after watching cat videos.
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However, Chubby is is almost always involved in a deeply sad, controversial, or peculiar situation.
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Many of the videos place Chubby in somewhat depressing human situations - and those are the ones that seem to resonate the most with viewers:
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Chubby harrowingly has to fight in a conflict.
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Chubby tragically fails a test.
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Chubby miserably is addicted.
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Chubby distressingly is bullied and attacked.
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So maybe this is creative art which resonates with the emotions of people...or it might be total social media dross.
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Perhaps this is prime AI Slop, which you can learn about here: https://lnkd.in/gSWhXCPz​
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Whether you agree with it or not, Chubby is popular, and capturing real people's attention and emotions en masse globally.
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According to Wikipedia, as of June 3, 2023, Grumpy Cat had 8.3 million total likes on Facebook, 2.6 million followers on Instagram, 1.5 million followers on Twitter, and 276,000 subscribers on YouTube.
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That was at least an actual mammal.
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Perhaps the fans are living, in a sense, vicariously through the trials and tribulations that Chubby is dealing with, and it provides them a crumb of surreal solace.
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The algorithms work in such a way as to feed the bubblegum for the brain: if you spend time watching something, it serves you more of the same, so you continue watching, and thus the monetisation flywheel turns...
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Cat creators are cashing-in.
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Today there is a Chubby video that has over 50 million views and 68,000 comments, written in several different languages.
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Will this be the future of our entertainment? It's tough to say cat-egorically, but then Strategic Foresight is all about anticipation; not prediction.
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Have you encountered - and perhaps even enjoyed or been moved emotionally - by any Chubby social media content? Let us know.