Master tomorrow, today: invest in foresight to unlock the future.

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Foresight and forecast, though complimentary, are distinct and are not the same thing.
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To forecast is projecting likely future scenarios based on established patterns: using historical data plus current trends to predict short-term future outcomes.
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Forecasting is largely quantitative, relying on models and statistical analysis; for example to use past sales data to predict next quarter's revenue.
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Foresight is a broader, more qualitative approach that explores possible futures and emerging trends.
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In a single simple sentence: foresight is the discipline of exploring and anticipating future possible developments to shape the preferable future.
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It aims to identify and prepare for multiple potential futures, including those that are disruptive or significantly different from the present.
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It involves scenario planning, visioning, and understanding the implications of potential changes, encouraging strategic thinking, innovation, and long-term planning.
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Why foresight is of strategic importance for senior leaders:
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​Proactive Strategy: foresight allows leaders to anticipate disruptive changes and stay ahead of competitors by shaping strategic directions proactively.
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​Innovation Catalyst: it fosters a culture of innovation by encouraging exploration of unconventional ideas and opportunities.
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​Risk Management: helps in identifying potential risks and uncertainties, allowing for better-prepared responses to unforeseen events.
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​Holistic View: offers a comprehensive understanding of how emerging technologies might interact and evolve, shaping future markets and business models.
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As forecasting uses past snapshot data to as data to deduce the future, this is something that can often be done internally to the organisation.
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As Warren Buffett said: "Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future".
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Strategic foresight is not about predicting the future; it explores different possible futures, alongside the opportunities and challenges they might present.
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Strategic foresight takes a systematic approach to exploring and anticipating possible future developments, challenging conventional thinking.
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Shifting perspectives from "what is" to "what if" allows for the exploration of mindsets, mantras, and modes to prepare for possible future landscapes.
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Foresight thus equips leaders to not only react to changes but to influence and direct those alterations, crafting an actionable future that aligns with their strategic vision.
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Contact us to discuss how implementing foresight now into your company can improve your decision-making, directly influencing the bottom line of today and future shareholder value.
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Foresight today, dominance tomorrow: foresight fuels your strategic advantage.

Warning: we are at long-term future risk of losing our Intelligence and only having that which is Artificial if we continue on our current course.

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A study that simulated life and death decisions has shown that humans place excessive trust in Artificial Intelligence (AI) when guiding their choices.
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Alarming.
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Two experiments were used to assess the extent to which participants would be susceptible to the influence of an unreliable AI agent using a simple model of life-or-death decision-making under uncertainty.
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The topic? War.
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Participants were briefly shown a list of eight target photos simply marked as either friend (tilde) or foe (tick).
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They subsequently had to make rapid decisions on whether to carry out simulated assassinations on individual targets via a drone strike.
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A second opinion on the validity of the targets was given by AI.
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Despite being informed of the fallibility of the AI systems, two-thirds of participants allowed their decisions to be influenced by the AI.
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However, unknown to the participants the AI "advice" was completely random...
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Quote: "...our findings portray the people in our samples as dramatically disposed to overtrust and defer to unreliable AI".
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Just let that sink in.
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The research, by academics at the University of California, Merced​, is published in the journal Scientific Reports.
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Let's extrapolate this out - into more everyday, though perhaps no less life-or-death, situations such as medicine.
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In the near future will our health professionals acquiesce and defer towards the all-knowing "Dr. AI"?
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More mundane, what about how the likes of credit ratings are scored, updated, and disseminated?
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Considering how opaque these black-box, non-deterministic algorithms which power AI are, we must take on a more skeptical disposition when it comes to outsourcing critical, time-sensitive decisions to these bots.
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A previous related post: https://lnkd.in/g_GkEBhZ​
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Machines can - of course - provide great benefit; they can spot patterns we cannot, are much better at repetitive tasks, and in particular Generative AI works great as an amplifier or accelerant to existing processes.
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They do not, however, work well with uncertainty or dynamic situations (at least for now): the algorithm does NOT, unquestionably, know best.
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We are at genuine risk of unconsciously sleepwalking into a future world where our over-reliance of AI results in anthropomorphism gone wild.

Look around you right now: how many things have rechargeable batteries in them?

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Probably a handful, at least: common items include mobile phones, cordless keyboards, wearables, portable chargers, and laptops.
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Batteries are a topic typically around charged electrons rather than charged emotions, but they are now vital to so much of what we do daily.
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You might not yet have heard of, or be cognisant about, Solid State Batteries (SSBs), but you will in the near future.
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As the name suggests, SSBs contain a solid non-flammable electrolyte, made from materials such as ceramics - conventional Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries contain liquid electrolyte.
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SSBs promise to be more stable, durable, safer, and offer higher power densities than the more typical Li-ion batteries.
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Li-ion broadly works well, but they have issues including flammability, limited voltage, temperature sensitivity, and poor cycling performance.
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SSBs could bring a great deal of benefit in smaller devices, where packaging flexibility is always at a premium.
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One of the main criticisms of the Apple Watch - as well as price - is the fact that it is so loaded with tech features that the limited battery necessitates it being charged overnight for many, meaning sleep can't be tracked.
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Li-ion require additional space to accommodate internal volume expansion during charging, which limits miniaturisation.
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Samsung Electro-Mechanics​ has created the world’s first ultra-small, oxide-based all-solid-state battery for wearable devices.
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Another benefit of SSBs is the ability to craft them in different shapes, allowing for more versatility in product design and manufacture.
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The prototype, developed over three years (during which over 40 international patents were secured), is reported to offer an energy density which is the highest in the battery industry at 200Wh/L.
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It could be used in the tiny but tech-packed smart watches, earbuds, or smart rings that the firm produces.
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SSBs are also seen as the future of Electric Vehicles (EVs) - as well as being more powerful and safer, they may also provide faster charging times.
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The chief scientist of BYD recently stated in a speech that he expects SSBs to be widely used in 5 years' time, naturally starting with high-end premium models.
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Toyota and Samsung claim that they will have SSBs for EVs in production in time for the 2027 model year - promising ranges between charges of 965-1200km (a significant uplift from today).
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The average range for current EVs is less than 500km on a single charge, while the time to charge can take 20 minutes or several hours, depending on the car and the speed of the charging point.
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Currently, the SSB field faces challenges including complex manufacturing processes and comparatively high costs - but there are clear signs of progress.
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What's your take on SSBs - let us know by return Email if you're positive, negative, or perhaps...resistant?

Hedge funds make increased returns on their money by maximising performance of capital, and insulating gains from market risk.

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Profiting regardless, even if the market goes down.
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Key to this is holding positions in liquid assets: complex trading and risk management techniques along with financial leverage gives lots of optionality and flexibility.
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It's thus enlightening to see the results in the "Global Cryptocurrency Hedge Fund Report" released by AIMA - The Alternative Investment Management Association​ and ​PwC​.
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Both traditional and digital asset focused funds are increasing exposure due to two main factors: increased regulatory clarity, plus successful Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) launches have boosted confidence.
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Digital assets - not just crypto - are gradually becoming a more accepted part of the financial services landscape; in the future, you will treat them just like any other asset or investment (physical or digital).
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Headlines include that 47% of traditional hedge funds hold digital assets, up from 29% in 2023, and 37% in 2022.
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67% plan to maintain capital investment levels in crypto, with the remainder plan to increase their investments by the end of 2024.
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Digital asset strategies by hedgies are also becoming more sophisticated: derivative trading rose to 58% in 2024 (up from 38% in 2023), while spot trading dropped to 25%.
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Right now, family offices and high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) remain the largest investor categories in digital asset focused hedge funds.
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Despite the industry’s growth, many traditional hedge fund managers remain hesitant, with 76% of those not currently invested in digital assets unlikely to enter the space within the next three years (up from 54% in 2023).
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Unrelated, the recent "State of Crypto Report 2024" from Venture Capital firm Andreessen Horowitz​ has some other interesting key findings.
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These include all-time highs for crypto activity and usage, investment in infrastructure has lowered costs and increased capabilities, plus that Decentralised Finance (DeFi) is growing in popularity.
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Of particular note are stablecoins, now perceived by a growing band as bridging the gap between Traditional Finance (TradFi) and DeFi.
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See this previous post for more on stablecoins: https://lnkd.in/gSvJATNE
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Given that hedge funds are regularly accused of making markets more volatile, perhaps their increased influence is the last thing that the crypto rollercoaster needs.
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Or, viewed from the opposite perspective...
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Perhaps it is another sign of legitimacy for digital assets, demonstrating that big-brain hedge funds managers embrace these instruments in their quest for outsized returns to fuel their own fat fees.
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At least until the next time "crypto bros" do something dumb and lots of people lose money they can't afford.

Let's have More of Less in our digital future.

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Having dedicated, distraction-free devices that just do ONE THING REALLY WELL is where we need to focus, rather than packing-in more features.
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Take the Kindle digital reader from Amazon, for example.
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These are a series of e-readers, mobile electronic devices that are designed primarily for the purpose of reading digital books and content.
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First introduced in late 2007, the capabilities offered have changed over time but the key focus has remained - which is why they are so popular.
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This can be distilled into three key aspects: portability due to lightweight, great battery life, and a glare-free screen which is easy on the eyes.
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A swathe of updated versions have just been announced, with differing capabilities such as a colour screen or the capability to better mimic pen and paper, but the core ethos still holds.
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Many modern digital products are becoming much more convoluted and complicated.
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There may be more tech, but this actually reduces usability - and this is as true for software as it is for hardware.
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Take a modern car, for instance.
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An abundance of touchscreens increases optionality and configurability - being able to dynamically select driving modes, for example.
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However, it adds friction for simple tasks such as selecting music or changing the temperature, as these physical buttons have largely been removed.
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Not being able to quickly adjust these by feel or spatial awareness means you need to look at the screen, which is distracting - and dangerous.
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So many apps are just bloated, with irritating pop-ups of non-relevant offers both irritating and unnecessary.
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As we continue to innovate and advance, let's not lose sight of what the problem(s) is that we are trying to solve - and really make the solution, which can evolve over time just as the Kindle has, brilliantly compelling.
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Let's please have More of Less in our digital future - don't you agree?