HORIZON weekly 15th October 2024 from Future Horizon


HORIZON

Your weekly dispatch of strategic foresight on emerging technologies from Future Horizon

Hello, and welcome to the HORIZON weekly newsletter. Particularly warm greetings to our many new subscribers - please do forward this on to colleagues and connections in your network who would also enjoy the insights.

Below you will find some hand-picked fresh thought-leadership content, giving you an overview of recent developments, topical innovations, and what we're seeing and hearing out there towards the digital frontier.


If this Email has been forwarded to you, you can access previous editions and sign-up to receive future instances for free at: https://future-horizon.ck.page/posts


Recent articles

The Flutterby Effect.


You did not read that wrong, and it is not a typo - this is different to the well-known Butterfly Effect.

Flutter means to make a series of quick delicate movements up and down or side-to-side, or to cause something to do this - like a flag in the wind.

The Flutterby Effect is a unique concept we have created about how quick, almost ephemeral changes in the now can create ripples across emerging technologies for the future.

The Flutterby Effect highlights transient innovations and micro-decisions that may seem insignificant but, over time, shape the technological landscape.

Think of it like the fleeting interaction between two technologies - a momentary glitch, a brief trend, or an unexpected synergy that sets the stage for significant future shifts.

Three use case examples in action:
1) Adaptive Algorithms: a small tweak in an AI script today may lead to radically different user behaviours and market trends in a few months.
2) Rapid Prototyping: quick, iterative product releases can gather unique user data and feedback, refining technologies in unforeseen ways.
3) Transitory Trends: viral moments on social media can spur new tech developments, leading to unexpected collaborations or innovations.

By comparison, The Butterfly Effect is the notion that the world is deeply interconnected, such that one small occurrence can influence a much larger complex system.

It is named after an allegory for chaos theory; it evokes the idea that a small butterfly flapping its wings could, hypothetically, cause a typhoon.

Whilst the Butterfly Effect focuses on the chain reaction of significant events, The Flutterby Effect emphasises the power of fleeting moments and temporary changes.

In today's fast-paced tech world, The Flutterby Effect thus underscores the importance of agility and rapid response to transient opportunities; speed and adaptability are the path to valuable outcomes.

Senior leaders appreciate how even the smallest, seemingly inconsequential decisions can steer their company's technological evolution in unanticipated directions: even micro-decisions matter and require focus.

Recognising the impact of micro-decisions helps in better foresight and anticipation, leveraging fleeting innovations to their advantage and managing risk.

Embracing The Flutterby Effect encourages leaders to be nimble and responsive, preparing for a future where strategic agility and adaptability are key performance differentiators against the competition.

It fosters a culture of experimentation and openness to transient trends, fostering an innovative mindset to see them as potential game-changers.

The Flutterby Effect is therefore a vibrant reminder that in the world of emerging technologies, even the briefest flutter can change everything.

This underscores why Strategic Foresight is vital for a successful organisation when it comes to change, innovation, and transformation.


Having to actively date in the evermore digital realm today must be particularly tough.


You have no doubt both been - and previously needed - a "wingman" for friends when on a night out, loyally providing support in the search for a romantic partner.

In the near future perhaps such sacrificial cover won't be required - at least according to those pushing Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Dating app Grindr is testing a wingman AI agent which will, reportedly, suggest long-term relationship candidates.

AI agents go significantly beyond the request-response capabilities of chatbots such as ChatGPT that have come to define the current age of generative AI.

AI agents are autonomous intelligent systems which will perform specific tasks without human intervention.

It will be designed to interact with its environment, collect data, and use the data to perform self-determined tasks to meet specified goals.

An example use case might be to create - and book - a travel itinerary when given some dates, budget, and preferred destination.

Big Tech firms are already pushing them as the next frontier, with a paradigm-shift for workplace productivity.

However, according to Gartner AI agents won’t become mainstream for about 10 years.

Grindr is the most well-known app focused on the LGBTQ user base, with around 14 million active users.

The CEO has said that their wingman will be available in 2027.

The wingman will apparently keep track of users' favourite matches and make suggestions ranging from long-term relationship candidates to date spots.

Later on, the wingman may be able to make restaurant reservations and converse with other wingman bots so users have a "robust view" of each other by the time they meet in person.

More broadly, the share of people who are willing to spend money on dating apps to find a relationship has been falling - singles are falling out of love with them.

The software firms behind them are turning to tech to enhance their offerings, though it remains unclear if this is actually what users want - and will spend money on.

Apps Tinder and Hinge now have AI-based features like automated photo selection for profiles and filtering of fake accounts.

Earlier this year the founder of Bumble described a potential "AI dating concierge" in an interview; the reaction was overwhelmingly negative.

So be prepared for a future where AI agents influence how you work, whom you date, and how to pick up the pieces when things go wrong in either.

Let us know if you swiped right to like this post, or swiped left to reject it.


This picture doesn't look real, especially in our age of easily-accessible generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) images.


It is absolutely genuine: coming from a recent 3D aerial display of thousands of drone copters in a swarm over Shenzhen Bay Park, China.

This stunning display - a record of 10,197 drones working in concert - came on October 1st; National Day in the PRC.

These were controlled by one single laptop.

China is where fireworks were invented over a thousand years ago, but visual entertainment above our heads has truly been transformed.

The sky is now effectively a massive screen.

The effects are achieved by each multicopter moving at up to 200 km/h, being specifically positioned relative to others, and then having their colours changed (or being turned off) to achieve a mesmerising light show.

As well as the running person and bird pictured, the entertainment also included an impressive 3D representation of the city of Shenzhen itself.

Shenzhen is home to many innovative companies, notably including drone manufacturing titan DJI, and more broadly is the beating heart of the high-tech industry in China.

Drones of every type will form a critical part of our future, especially once AI capabilities advance and they become truly autonomously smart.

Whilst military applications for drones are understandably much in focus, we can also look forward to these captivating entertainment shows too.


A stark warning about what you share online, who controls that data, and how it can be accessed.

Unofficial, but nonetheless a very real surveillance nightmare.

Two students at Harvard University have hacked a pair of smart glasses, demonstrating how face recognition capabilities can be added.

Big Tech companies could do this, of course - but they recognise the overwhelming risks and acute danger involved.

The modified specs scan a stranger's face and then automatically find relevant public data on that person which has been published online.

In less than 60 seconds this may include name, home address, phone number, or family members.

The technology marries Meta's current smart Ray-Ban glasses with the facial recognition service Pimeyes.

Taking the feed from external-facing cameras on the glasses, a bot looks for a face.

Once it finds one, it does a reverse-image search (finding other similar images online of a given picture).

With the similar images, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is then used to find personal identifying information (PII), and a Large Language Model (LLM) compiles all the data into a profile in the app they created.

NB: these are not the new enhanced wearables recently announced and covered here: https://lnkd.in/gHRpKQee

In essence this is automated doxxing - searching the Web for private identifying information about a particular individual, typically with malicious intent to publish.

Fair play to the students for making this innovation public to raise awareness - spooks would fall over themselves for this tech (if they don't have it already).

In fact they compiled instructions on how to opt out of reverse face and people search engines, plus how to protect yourself from data leaks.

Thankfully the pair are not releasing the code used for their project, which they have dubbed "I-XRAY".

Nevertheless, less benevolent but equally tech-savvy actors will quickly copy it for more nefarious motives.

Web3 is all about individuals controlling their own data, monetising it as an asset, with decentralised communities taking the place of Big Tech.

The concept of Web3 hasn't taken off: most people are content with free stuff like social media in exchange for "them" storing - and using - personal data for advertising; that's the value exchange.

For now there remains a thin line between being able to move around with relative anonymity...to where your identity can be automatically retrieved in an instant (unbeknownst by you) by strangers.

Perhaps we'll actively desire wearing of a distortionary face masks again, like during COVID, just to give us a semblance of privacy in future...

The key message is be actively mindful of your personal data, and make informed choices about how it is shared in order to protect your privacy - both today and in the future.


There is "remote working", and then there is working in places that are truly remote, largely cut-off from convenience, continuity...and connectivity.

For those employed on the high seas, this can mean being away from friends, family, and comparative normality for months at a time with limited capability to access the Internet.

Such connection restrictions may be especially true if you are on a military vessel.

The United States Navy (USN) is seeking to remedy this, to a large degree, with a new service called Sailor Edge Afloat and Ashore (SEA2).

Build on the backbone of Starlink commercial Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations provided by SpaceX, SEA2 offers important operational and morale-boosting benefits.

For the last three decades USN ships have relied on six dedicated military geostationary satellites, resulting in slow data rates as demands on those virtual pipes have increased enormously.

These six satellites sit over 22,000 miles away, causing significant round-trip delay to signals to get there and back; conversely, the Starlink sets are much closer at 375-750 miles above the Earth.

As of September 2024, there are over 6,000 Starlink satellites in orbit.

An active demonstration occurred earlier this year when around 800 serving personnel were able to watch the Super Bowl on a livestream broadcast whilst their aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was out at sea.

On top of allowing sailors to better keep in touch with home, there are tangible operational benefits such as the crew being able to more rapidly and easily order spare maintenance parts.

As well as increasing morale, more mundane but still important tasks are helped by having more consistent and higher bandwidth - such as ensuring Windows computer updates occur in good time.

Unconnected (pun-intended), the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces has also begun trialing Starlink on two ships to improve internet access for personal use.

Right now, SEA2 can only handle unclassified data transfer, but that may change and it is already cybersecurity certified.

SpaceX now has an entire government-focused business unit called Starshield, which supplies more military-tailored versions of Starlink to America’s armed forces.

As well as Starlink, SEA2 also leverages OneWeb - the architecture is designed to be network agnostic and can also make use of military satellite communications constellations.

Such distributed satellite constellations have the benefit of being more resilient against various kinds of attacks, including electronic warfare jamming and even the physical loss of individual nodes.

This sort of approach can be expanded in future into other sectors who undertake remote work such as mining exploration or disaster relief work.

So spare a thought for those - military or otherwise - who spend elongated time away in far-flung locales; innovative tech will continue to bring them a little closer to home in future.


Thank-you for reading and being part of our community - we trust you find these original pieces on emerging technology and digital innovation useful, valuable, and thought-provoking as we bridge the gap between today and what future technology might bring tomorrow in Plain English.

Contact us now to discuss how we can deliver strategic foresight for your business - https://www.futurehorizon.digital/

Think bold.

Think broad.

Think beyond.


If you would like to explore sponsoring an edition of HORIZON, please get in touch at horizon-sponsorship@futurehorizon.digital

If you are not currently a retained client but value the weekly insights in HORIZON and wish to support its ongoing work, you may kindly consider contributing using the Buy Me A Coffee page: https://buymeacoffee.com/futurehorizonco


As ever, we welcome all forms of feedback: compliments as well as constructive criticism! If there are particular topics you want to see more - or less - of, please let us know. You can reach us at horizon-weekly@futurehorizon.digital


Future Horizon - a trading name of PLACE Solutions Pte. Ltd Singapore (UEN 201800654G).
Unsubscribe · Preferences

Future Horizon

HORIZON is the weekly short summary Email from Future Horizon where the latest digital innovations and emerging technologies are explained in Plain English.

Read more from Future Horizon
HORIZON weekly 29th October 2024 from Future Horizon

HORIZON Your weekly dispatch of strategic foresight on emerging technologies from Future Horizon Hello, and welcome to the HORIZON weekly newsletter. Particularly warm greetings to our many new subscribers - please do forward this on to colleagues and connections in your network who would also enjoy the insights. Below you will find some hand-picked fresh thought-leadership content, giving you an overview of recent developments, topical innovations, and what we're seeing and hearing out there...

HORIZON weekly 22nd October 2024 from Future Horizon

HORIZON Your weekly dispatch of strategic foresight on emerging technologies from Future Horizon Hello, and welcome to the HORIZON weekly newsletter. Particularly warm greetings to our many new subscribers - please do forward this on to colleagues and connections in your network who would also enjoy the insights. Below you will find some hand-picked fresh thought-leadership content, giving you an overview of recent developments, topical innovations, and what we're seeing and hearing out there...

HORIZON weekly 8th October 2024 from Future Horizon  draft  publish

HORIZON Your weekly dispatch of strategic foresight on emerging technologies from Future Horizon Hello, and welcome to the HORIZON weekly newsletter. Particularly warm greetings to our many new subscribers - please do forward this on to colleagues and connections in your network who would also enjoy the insights. Below you will find some hand-picked fresh thought-leadership content, giving you an overview of recent developments, topical innovations, and what we're seeing and hearing out there...